How Long Will Low Mortgage Rates Last?

It looks like now is the right time to buy a home!
For nine consecutive weeks, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has been hovering at or below record lows of 4 percent, pushing housing affordability for home buyers even higher.
But will these low rates stick around much longer?
The Federal Reserve has vowed to keep rates low through 2013 so rates likely will hang around for a few more months, at least, but whether mortgage rates will stay at the current record-lows, many experts say it’s unlikely.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is expected to inch up to an average 4.5 percent for 2012 and increase to 5.4 percent in 2013, according to Freddie Mac economists’ forecasts.
While that forecast means rates are expected to move higher in the coming months, the rates will still be low by historical standards, economists told the Los Angeles Times. For comparison, 30-year rates averaged more than 16 percent in 1981 and 1982. What’s more, until 2000, rates typically were above 8 percent, Freddie Mac notes.
Despite the drop in rates, however, many home buyers have been unable to take advantage of the low rates. Lenders’ tightening of their underwriting standards for loans in the recent years following the housing crisis has shut some buyers who have poor credit, low down payments, or unsteady employment from securing a loan at today’s low rates. Freddie Mac had predicted home-purchase applications to comprise two-thirds of all mortgage applications by the end of 2011. But the Mortgage Bankers Associations says that instead about 80 percent of the mortgage applications came from home owners who wanted to refinance.

Source: “Low Mortgage Rates Likely to Continue Through 2012, Experts Say,” Los Angeles Times (Jan. 3, 2012)

Housing Forecast for 2012

The worst for the housing market may finally be over, according to housing experts in a recent article in Kiplinger. After median home price have dropped nearly 40 percent nationwide, a rebound is taking shape -- although, housing experts say, the market may stay flat for awhile before gradually ticking up.

According to housing experts in a recent Kiplinger article, here are some predictions for the real estate market in the coming year:

Home prices stabilize: Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, predicts that home prices nationwide may still drop another 3 to 5 percent in 2012, but the new year will most likely finally bring a leveling off of home prices before gains start to take shape in 2013. When markets do begin to stabilize in the new year, “price appreciation tends to spread unevenly, creating a lot of confusion about where the recovery is occurring and when,” David Stiff, chief economist at Fiserv Case-Shiller, told Kiplinger. “Even within a single city, more desirable neighborhoods will stabilize first, while prices in other neighborhoods may fall at a rapid pace.”

Housing affordability high: Housing affordability -- the ratio of median home prices to median family income -- will likely remain at record levels in 2012. Homes in many cities are “substantially undervalued,” the Kiplinger article notes. That may even lead to a mini bubble with double-digit spikes in prices, such as an increase of 10 to 15 percent in a given year in some markets, housing experts say.

Low mortgage rates: Helping to keep affordability high, low mortgage rates are expected to continue on in 2012 -- at least the first part of the year, economists predict. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, the most popular among home buyers, has been hovering under a 4-percent average the past few weeks, staying in record low territory. Rates are expected to stay between 4 to 5 percent in 2012, predicts Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance, an industry publication.

Sales increases: The National Association of REALTORS^® has already been showing a tick up in sales taking shape with increases in existing-home sales during the summer and early fall of 2011. High inventories of homes continue to flood the market but a drastic slowdown in new-home building the past three years is “gradually easing the surplus,” the Kiplinger article notes.

Foreclosures: Foreclosures remain the problem and still plague many markets. After a slowdown with lenders processing the paperwork, foreclosures have began to pick up once again. About 1.84 million home loans are 90 days or more delinquent and 2.17 million have finished the foreclosure process but aren’t up for sale yet, according to RealtyTrac data. Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital, told Kiplinger that he predicts regardless of the downward price pressure caused from foreclosures, overall home prices won’t fall as long as lenders bring additional foreclosures to the housing market at a steady pace.

Source: “What’s Ahead for Home Prices in 2012,” Kiplinger (January 2012)

Logan first among small U.S. cities for business

An economic think tank has ranked Logan first among small cities in the U.S. for being a good business community.
The Milken Institute, founded in 1991 and based in California, has released a new list of best performing cities for the year. Salt Lake City, Provo and Ogden ranked in the Top 25 among large metro cities, while Logan ranked No. 1 among small cities.

Logan skyrocketed from its No. 19 ranking in last year's list.
The research looked at 179 small cities and 200 large metros. In the large-city category, Salt Lake was ranked No. 6, Provo was listed at No. 9, and Ogden took the 15th spot on the list. St. George, which falls in the small-city category, was ranked 124th. No other Utah cities made the list.
The Milken Institute, which releases an annual index, noted that Utah cities made in impressive showing this year.
"Utah was the only state to double its volume of exports over the past five years, and Salt Lake's economy is highly diversified, with pharmaceuticals, medical devices, transportation equipment, financial services, and high-tech companies," Milken representatives wrote in a media release.
In this report, Logan is looked at as a metropolitan area, which includes about 130,000 people through all of Cache Valley, including parts of Idaho.
Logan scored high in several areas. It was ranked sixth in its five-year, relative high-tech gross domestic product growth; and ninth in high-tech gross domestic product location quotient, which is a measure of high-tech concentration. And the city ranked first among small cities nationwide for its number of highly concentrated high-tech industries. In that category, Logan received a score of 9; the U.S. average is 1, and anything higher indicates a higher concentration.
Cache Chamber of Commerce CEO Sandy Emile called the report "fabulous news."
"It's been an outstanding year for Cache County and Logan, in general, in terms of recognition that we've had in a downturned economy," she said. "To still be on the nation's radar for doing business ... this is just another feather in our cap."
The Milken Institute index includes measures of job, wage and technology performance in ranking the areas. It does not use quality-of-life metrics, including commute times and housing costs.
San Antonio, Texas, was ranked No. 1 among large metros.
In a statement from Utah Gov. Gary Herbert, he said the new research is "further evidence that Utah continues to be the most impressive economy in the country."
"Our work ethic, our skilled labor force, and our business-friendly environment - exemplified by these four cities - continue to fuel expansion and job growth in Utah," he said.
Emile said she thinks Logan's showing on the list is evidence of "excellent leadership" in local municipalities.
"There is a visioning process that's going on in Logan and in Cache County that allows us to make decisions to move us forward systematically and intelligently without jumping to some rapid growth conclusions," she said.
Representatives from the Governor's Office of Economic Development said Utah's cities have led the economic charge over the past year.
Executive Director Spencer Eccles commented on the list through a press release issued Friday.
"We recognize that communities across the state, large and small, have all created unique and innovative strategies that have resulted in accelerated business development and job creation. Classic examples include Logan's No. 1 ranking as a best-performing small city versus last year's No. 19 rank," he said. "Clearly all Utah's cities are pulling together in the same direction."

Source: Herald Journal

New Home Construction up 9.3%

New-home construction and building permits — a future gauge of construction — surged last month, slowly helping to pull the new-home market out of one of its worst years for home building.

Builders broke ground on more homes in November, a 9.3 percent increase over October, reaching the highest level since April 2010, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Year-over-year, new-home starts were up 24.3 percent in November.

Home construction increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000 homes in November. However, while it’s an improvement, the rate is still below the 1.2 million home pace that economists consider healthy for the new-home sector.

November’s increase was mostly driven by construction of multi-family homes with at least two units, which soared 25.3 percent in November. Construction of single-family homes increased 2.3 percent for the month.

Building permits jumped 5.7 percent in November, the highest increase since March 2010, with the increase mostly driven by apartment construction permits.

Builders Feeling More Confident

Meanwhile, for the third consecutive month, builder confidence in the new-home market continued to edge up, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. The index is at its highest point since May 2010.

While the index reached 21 in December, it is still far below 50, a reading which indicates more builders view conditions as good rather than poor. The index hasn’t reached that point since the housing boom in April 2006.

“While builder confidence remains low, the consistent gains registered over the past several months are an indication that pockets of recovery are slowly starting to emerge in scattered housing markets," Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders, said in a statement. "However, the difficulties that both builders and buyers continue to experience in accessing credit for new homes are holding back potential sales even in areas where economic conditions are improving."

Source: “Apartment Construction Spurs 9.3% Jump in Housing Starts, But Level Remains Low,” Associated Press (Dec. 20, 2011); “U.S. Nov. Housing Starts +9.3% to 685K; Consensus +0.3%,” Dow Jones International News (Dec. 20, 2011); and National Association of Home Builders

Fed Reafirms Pledge To Keep Rates Low

At its Tuesday meeting, the Federal Reserve reaffirmed its pledge to keep interest rates low and opted to not take any new measures to bolster the economy, saying the economy has already been showing signs of “expanding moderately.” The economy has shown some improvement in employment and consumer spending in recent weeks. However, the Fed cautioned at Tuesday’s meeting that the "housing sector remains depressed."
In reaffirming a pledge it first issued in August, the Fed said the federal funds rate -- which serves as a benchmark rate for many types of loans, including mortgages -- will remain near zero until mid-2013. The Fed said it will continue with plans to move $400 billion of its bond portfolio into longer-term securities, which ultimately could send long-term interest rates even lower.
Overall, the Fed said the economy has steadily been showing signs of improvement and is on track to post its strongest gains of the year in the final months of 2011. But the Fed said that the European debt crisis will continue to pose a major threat to recovery with “strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks."
Source: “U.S. Fed Leaves Rate Unchanged, Says Economy Expanding Moderately,” Bloomberg News (Dec. 13, 2011)

Fed Chair Takes Advantage of Low Rates Too

Now you know for sure that it's a good time to buy or refinance!

Fed Chair Takes Advantage of Low Rates Too

Principle Reductions Outpacing Short Sales?

Some lenders may be more willing to reduce the mortgage principal than grant a short sale for borrowers under the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). The principal reduction can mean big savings for home owners too — the average amount reduced on a principal reduction is more than $65,000, or 31 percent of the unpaid balance on the mortgage, according to new Treasury Department data.
Principal reductions under HAMP began in October 2010, serving as an alternative to a short sale or deed-in-lieu of foreclosure for cash-strapped home owners. Only loans not guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are eligible for a principal reduction.
“The median loan-to-value ratio on modifications that went through principal reduction was 158 percent,” HousingWire reports in a recent article. “After the workout was complete, the borrower held an LTV of 115 percent, meaning he or she owed 15 percent more on the mortgage than the home was worth rather than being 58 percent underwater.”
Banks may find a principal reduction is better for them financially too. Banks report an average loss rate of 60 percent whenever borrowers complete a short sale, and an average 70 percent loss for homes in the foreclosure or REO process, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
Source: “Principal Reduction Outpaces Short Sales Under HAMP,” HousingWire (Dec. 12, 2011)

 I haven't seen this as much with Real Estate in Logan, UT but it may be the trend that is coming.